Not sure what you are talking about. The RCP average for the year leading up to the 2022 mid terms showed a range of D +1 to R+4. The final result was R +2.8. Apparently the polls weren't fooling anybody about a red wave, they were instead predictive.
About Roe v. Wade being overturned, the polls tigtened by a couple of points after the SCOTUS decision, but then they bounced back up in October to where they were before the SCOTUS decision.
There were 50+ threads right here on FR talking about the red wave. did you miss reading those?